Published on: 2025-10-25

Intelligence Report: Indian agriculture becoming powerful instrument of foreign policy – BusinessLine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

India’s strategic shift in leveraging its agricultural sector as a tool of foreign policy is likely to enhance its geopolitical influence, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. The hypothesis that India will successfully integrate agriculture into its foreign policy is better supported, given current initiatives and partnerships. However, inconsistent policies and abrupt export restrictions pose significant risks. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: India should establish a consistent agricultural export policy to maximize its geopolitical leverage.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: India will successfully leverage its agricultural sector as a powerful instrument of foreign policy, enhancing its geopolitical influence and securing new alliances.
2. **Hypothesis B**: India’s efforts to use agriculture as a foreign policy tool will face significant challenges due to inconsistent domestic policies and external geopolitical tensions, limiting its effectiveness.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is more supported by evidence such as India-UAE food security partnerships and strategic use of food diplomacy. Hypothesis B is supported by historical instances of abrupt export restrictions and potential geopolitical tensions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– India can maintain a balance between domestic food security and international commitments.
– Partner countries will remain stable and cooperative.
– **Red Flags**:
– Historical inconsistency in export policies.
– Potential geopolitical tensions with neighboring countries affecting agricultural exports.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic**: Strengthening agricultural exports can boost India’s economy but may strain domestic food supply if not managed carefully.
– **Geopolitical**: Successful agricultural diplomacy can enhance India’s influence in the Middle East and Africa, but failure could lead to diminished credibility.
– **Psychological**: Perception of India as a reliable partner could be undermined by policy inconsistencies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Mitigate Risks**: Establish a consistent agricultural export policy to avoid abrupt restrictions.
• **Exploit Opportunities**: Expand agricultural partnerships with emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: India becomes a leading global agricultural exporter, enhancing its geopolitical influence.
  – **Worst Case**: Policy inconsistencies lead to loss of trust and reduced influence.
  – **Most Likely**: Gradual increase in influence with some challenges in policy consistency.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– **Emaar**: Leading investment in logistics and food processing in India.
– **WAM News**: Reporting on India-UAE food corridor developments.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, economic diplomacy, agricultural policy, geopolitical strategy