Published on: 2025-10-30

Intelligence Report: Widespread Internet Shutdown in Tanzania During General Election

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Tanzanian government implemented the internet shutdown to control the narrative and suppress dissent during the general election. Confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the pattern of similar actions in other nations during politically sensitive periods. It is recommended to monitor the situation closely and engage in diplomatic dialogues emphasizing the importance of communication freedoms.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Government Control Hypothesis**: The Tanzanian government deliberately shut down the internet to suppress dissent, control the electoral narrative, and prevent the organization of protests.

2. **Technical Failure Hypothesis**: The internet shutdown was due to a technical failure or cyberattack unrelated to government intervention, coincidentally occurring during the election period.

Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), the first hypothesis is better supported by the pattern of similar actions in other countries during elections and periods of unrest, as well as reports of government deployment of military forces to control protests.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the government has the capability and intent to control internet access. It is also assumed that the timing of the shutdown is not coincidental.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of direct evidence linking the government to the shutdown. Potential bias in reporting, as sources may have limited access to on-ground verification.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited insight into the technical infrastructure of Tanzania’s internet services and potential external threats.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The shutdown could exacerbate tensions and lead to increased civil unrest, potentially destabilizing the region. Economically, it may deter foreign investment and affect communication-dependent sectors. Geopolitically, it could strain Tanzania’s relations with international allies advocating for human rights and free speech.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to encourage the restoration of internet services and promote dialogue between the government and opposition groups.
• Monitor for signs of escalation in civil unrest and prepare contingency plans for potential evacuation of foreign nationals if necessary.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Internet services are restored, and tensions de-escalate through diplomatic interventions.
  • **Worst Case**: Prolonged shutdown leads to significant unrest, international condemnation, and economic repercussions.
  • **Most Likely**: Gradual restoration of services with ongoing low-level protests and international pressure for transparency.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International’s Regional Director for East and Southern Africa, has commented on the situation.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, regional focus, human rights, political stability