Published on: 2025-11-01

Intelligence Report: Sudan Foreign ministers decry ‘apocalyptic’ atrocities – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in Sudan, particularly in El Fasher, is dire with significant humanitarian crises exacerbated by the actions of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The most supported hypothesis suggests that the RSF, potentially backed by external actors, is deliberately exacerbating the conflict to consolidate power. Confidence in this hypothesis is moderate due to limited direct evidence of external support. Immediate international diplomatic intervention is recommended to prevent further atrocities and stabilize the region.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The RSF is acting independently to consolidate power in Sudan, exploiting the chaos for territorial and political gain.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The RSF is receiving external support, possibly from the United Arab Emirates, to destabilize Sudan for strategic regional influence.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the current evidence, as there is no definitive proof of external material support, although accusations exist. Hypothesis B remains plausible but requires further verification of external involvement.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the RSF’s actions are primarily driven by internal power dynamics. The role of external actors is speculative without concrete evidence.
– **Red Flags**: The accusation against the UAE lacks corroborative evidence, suggesting potential misinformation or propaganda.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited on-ground intelligence and potential bias in reporting from involved foreign ministers.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses significant risks of regional instability, potentially spilling over into neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis could lead to mass migration, straining resources in bordering nations. Geopolitically, if external support for the RSF is confirmed, it could lead to increased tensions between regional powers and international actors.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international diplomatic engagement to mediate between conflicting parties in Sudan.
• Deployment of humanitarian aid with protection measures to ensure safe distribution.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful mediation leads to a ceasefire and gradual stabilization.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of conflict with confirmed external involvement, leading to broader regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued localized conflict with intermittent international diplomatic efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Johann Wadephul
– Yvette Cooper
– Ayman Safadi
– Christian Lindmeier
– Michel Olivier Lacharite

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, geopolitical dynamics