Published on: 2025-11-02

Intelligence Report: Disasters shutdowns and cable damage galore – Cloudflare study reveals what’s really been behind all the recent Internet outages – TechRadar

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that global internet outages are primarily caused by a combination of government-imposed shutdowns and accidental physical infrastructure damage. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action includes enhancing international cooperation to improve infrastructure resilience and developing contingency plans for critical internet-dependent operations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Internet outages are predominantly due to government-imposed shutdowns and accidental physical infrastructure damage, such as cable cuts and natural disasters.
2. **Hypothesis B**: Cyberattacks and internal technical failures are the primary causes of recent internet outages, with government actions and physical damage being secondary factors.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the evidence, which highlights frequent government-imposed blackouts and accidental damage as major contributors. While cyberattacks and technical failures are noted, they appear less frequent in the data presented.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that government actions and physical damage are more impactful than cyberattacks. Hypothesis B assumes cyber threats are underreported.
– **Red Flags**: Potential bias in data reporting from Cloudflare, as it may not capture all cyber incidents. The lack of detailed attribution for cyberattacks and technical failures is a blind spot.
– **Inconsistent Data**: The report does not quantify the relative impact of each cause, leading to potential misinterpretation of their significance.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Impact**: Prolonged outages can disrupt economic activities, particularly in regions reliant on digital infrastructure.
– **Cybersecurity Risks**: Increased vulnerability to cyberattacks during outages could escalate into broader security threats.
– **Geopolitical Tensions**: Government-imposed shutdowns may strain international relations, especially if perceived as oppressive.
– **Psychological Effects**: Public trust in internet reliability may erode, affecting digital adoption and innovation.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international collaboration to strengthen internet infrastructure and resilience against physical and cyber threats.
• Develop robust contingency plans for critical sectors reliant on internet connectivity.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Improved infrastructure and cooperation reduce outage frequency and impact.
  • Worst Case: Increased cyberattacks and government shutdowns lead to prolonged global disruptions.
  • Most Likely: Continued mixed causes of outages with gradual improvements in response strategies.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Cloudflare (as the primary source of data)
– National governments involved in imposing internet shutdowns
– Internet service providers affected by infrastructure damage

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus