Published on: 2025-11-03

Intelligence Report: Why is Afghanistan so prone to earthquakes – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Afghanistan’s vulnerability to earthquakes is primarily due to its location on active tectonic plates. The most supported hypothesis is that tectonic activity is the primary driver of seismic events. Confidence level is high. Recommended action includes enhancing earthquake resilience through infrastructure improvements and early warning systems.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Tectonic Activity Hypothesis**: Afghanistan’s frequent earthquakes are primarily due to its position at the convergence of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates, with additional influence from the Arabian plate. This tectonic interaction creates a highly active seismic zone.

2. **Geological Instability Hypothesis**: Beyond tectonic activity, Afghanistan’s geological features, such as its rugged mountains and fault lines, inherently contribute to its earthquake frequency and severity, independent of plate movements.

Using ACH 2.0, the Tectonic Activity Hypothesis is better supported due to the clear evidence of plate convergence and historical seismic data aligning with tectonic boundaries.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The primary assumption is that tectonic activity is the sole driver of earthquakes, potentially overlooking other geological factors.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of detailed geological surveys could lead to underestimating non-tectonic factors. The absence of recent data on infrastructure resilience is a concern.
– **Blind Spots**: Potential underreporting of earthquake impacts in remote areas due to limited monitoring capabilities.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Risks**: Frequent earthquakes can severely impact Afghanistan’s economy by damaging infrastructure and disrupting trade.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Regional instability could increase if earthquakes exacerbate humanitarian crises, potentially leading to cross-border tensions.
– **Psychological Impact**: Repeated seismic events may lead to widespread fear and reduced public confidence in government disaster response capabilities.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• **Infrastructure Resilience**: Invest in earthquake-resistant construction and retrofit existing structures to minimize damage.
• **Early Warning Systems**: Implement advanced monitoring technologies to provide timely alerts and facilitate evacuations.
• **Scenario Projections**:
  – **Best Case**: Successful implementation of resilience measures reduces earthquake impact.
  – **Worst Case**: Continued high-impact earthquakes without improved infrastructure lead to significant loss of life and economic downturn.
  – **Most Likely**: Gradual improvements in resilience with moderate reduction in earthquake impact over time.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

No specific individuals are mentioned in the source text. Focus remains on governmental and international bodies involved in disaster management and infrastructure development.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, disaster resilience, regional focus, infrastructure development