Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: US revives abandoned Cold War base in Caribbean amid buildup near Venezuela – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the United States is preparing for a strategic military presence to counter perceived threats from Venezuela, with a moderate confidence level. The recommended action is to monitor developments closely and engage in diplomatic channels to de-escalate tensions while preparing for potential regional instability.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The US is reviving the Cold War base and increasing military presence in the Caribbean as a deterrent against potential aggression from Venezuela and to counter illicit activities such as drug trafficking.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The US is preparing for a potential military intervention in Venezuela, using the revival of the base and increased military presence as a pretext for future operations.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the stated mission of detecting and interdicting illicit activities, which aligns with historical US military operations in the region.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the US military buildup is primarily defensive and focused on counter-narcotics operations. Another assumption is that Venezuela poses a significant threat to regional stability.
– **Red Flags**: The timing of the military buildup coinciding with political tensions in Venezuela could indicate ulterior motives. The lack of transparent communication from the US regarding the specific objectives of the buildup raises questions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The military buildup could lead to increased tensions between the US and Venezuela, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict. Economic sanctions and cyber operations could be employed by both sides, affecting regional stability. The presence of nuclear submarines and advanced military assets increases the risk of miscalculation or accidental engagement.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Venezuela to clarify intentions and reduce tensions.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing with regional allies to monitor illicit activities and potential threats.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • **Best Case**: Successful diplomatic engagement leads to de-escalation and improved regional security cooperation.
  • **Worst Case**: Military confrontation occurs, leading to significant regional instability and economic disruption.
  • **Most Likely**: Continued military presence serves as a deterrent, with periodic diplomatic tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Donald Trump
– Nicolas Maduro
– USS Gerald Ford
– Southern Command

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, military strategy, regional focus, geopolitical tensions