Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: ‘People will starve’ because of US aid cut to Sudan – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The abrupt suspension of US aid to Sudan, particularly the freeze on humanitarian assistance, is expected to exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The closure of emergency food kitchens, which serve as a lifeline for millions affected by the civil war, will likely lead to increased starvation and instability. Immediate action is required to address the funding gap and ensure continued support for vulnerable populations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Strong grassroots networks and community resilience in Sudan.

Weaknesses: Heavy reliance on international aid and lack of local resources.

Opportunities: Potential for increased local and international collaboration to fill funding gaps.

Threats: Escalating conflict and political instability, leading to further humanitarian crises.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The aid cut in Sudan may lead to increased migration pressures on neighboring countries, potentially destabilizing the region. Additionally, the reduction in humanitarian support could exacerbate existing tensions and contribute to further conflict.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Rapid international response and alternative funding sources mitigate the impact of the aid cut, stabilizing the humanitarian situation.

Worst-case scenario: Prolonged aid suspension leads to widespread famine and increased conflict, destabilizing the region.

Most likely scenario: Partial restoration of aid through alternative channels, with continued challenges in addressing the humanitarian needs.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The aid cut poses significant risks to regional stability and security. The potential for increased famine and displacement could lead to heightened tensions and conflict, impacting neighboring countries and international interests. Economic instability may also arise from disrupted trade and increased humanitarian needs.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage international partners to increase funding and support for Sudanese humanitarian efforts.
• Facilitate dialogue between conflicting parties to reduce tensions and promote peace.
• Enhance local capacity-building initiatives to reduce dependency on international aid.

Outlook:

Best-case: International community steps up with increased funding, stabilizing the situation.

Worst-case: Continued aid suspension leads to severe humanitarian and regional crises.

Most likely: Partial aid restoration with ongoing challenges in meeting humanitarian needs.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions several individuals and organizations involved in the situation:

• Donald Trump
• Duaa Tariq
• Andrea Tracy
• Samantha Power
• Emergency Response Room
• Mutual Sudan Coalition
• USAID
• World Food Programme (WFP)