Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: Over Half of Americans Expect a Political Candidate Will Be Assassinated Within 5 Years New Survey Shows – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

There is a growing perception among Americans that political violence, including the assassination of political candidates, is becoming more likely. This report evaluates two hypotheses regarding the potential increase in political violence. The hypothesis that political violence will increase due to heightened political polarization and mainstream acceptance of violent rhetoric is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance monitoring of extremist groups and rhetoric, and increase protective measures for political figures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: The expectation of political violence, including assassinations, will lead to an actual increase in such incidents due to heightened political polarization and the mainstreaming of violent rhetoric.

Hypothesis 2: Despite the expectation of increased political violence, actual incidents will not rise significantly due to effective law enforcement and counter-terrorism measures.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis 1 is better supported by the data, which indicates a rise in politically motivated violent acts and a generational divide in the acceptance of political violence.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Political polarization will continue to intensify.
– Law enforcement capabilities will remain constant.

Red Flags:
– The survey may reflect perception rather than reality, potentially skewing public discourse.
– Potential bias in survey methodology or interpretation.
– Lack of specific data on thwarted assassination attempts.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The normalization of political violence could lead to increased domestic instability, impacting national security and public trust in democratic institutions. The economic impact could include increased security costs and potential disruptions to political processes. Geopolitically, such trends could weaken the nation’s global standing and influence.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms between federal and local law enforcement agencies.
• Invest in community engagement programs to counteract extremist narratives.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Decreased political violence due to successful intervention and de-escalation strategies.
  • Worst Case: A high-profile assassination exacerbates political divisions and civil unrest.
  • Most Likely: Continued sporadic incidents of political violence with increased security measures.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Charlie Kirk
– Kamala Harris
– Robert Pape

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, political violence, counter-terrorism, domestic extremism