Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: War Is Coming Back to Gaza – The Atlantic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that a renewed conflict in Gaza is likely due to Hamas’s unwillingness to disarm and the lack of a viable international stabilization force. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Increase diplomatic efforts to establish a credible political process that includes disarmament incentives and explore the feasibility of a multinational peacekeeping force.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Renewed conflict in Gaza is imminent due to Hamas’s refusal to disarm and the absence of a viable international stabilization force. This hypothesis is supported by Hamas’s historical behavior and the current geopolitical dynamics that favor maintaining its control over Gaza.

Hypothesis 2: A political resolution is possible if a credible international stabilization force is deployed, combined with a robust political process that includes disarmament incentives. This hypothesis relies on the assumption that international actors can coordinate effectively and that Hamas can be persuaded to negotiate.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions for Hypothesis 1 include the belief that Hamas will continue to prioritize military dominance over political negotiation. A red flag is the potential underestimation of international diplomatic efforts.

Assumptions for Hypothesis 2 include the belief that international actors can successfully coordinate a peacekeeping mission and that Hamas is open to negotiation. A red flag is the historical failure of similar initiatives and the potential for internal Palestinian political fragmentation.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continuation of conflict in Gaza could lead to significant humanitarian crises, further destabilization of the region, and increased radicalization. Economic impacts include potential disruptions to regional trade. Geopolitically, it could strain relations between Israel and neighboring countries, while psychologically, it could deepen mistrust among the local population.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic engagement with key regional players to explore disarmament incentives for Hamas.
• Conduct feasibility studies for deploying a multinational peacekeeping force, potentially involving private military contractors for initial stabilization.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best: Successful deployment of a peacekeeping force leads to a gradual disarmament and stabilization.
  • Worst: Renewed conflict results in extensive casualties and infrastructure damage.
  • Most Likely: Continued stalemate with intermittent skirmishes and international diplomatic pressure.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

King Abdullah II, Donald Trump, Hamas, Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus