Published on: 2025-11-08

Intelligence Report: Sahel-based terror groups expand to coastal West Africa – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The expansion of Sahel-based terror groups into coastal West Africa poses a significant threat to regional stability and international trade routes. The most supported hypothesis suggests that these groups are leveraging ungoverned spaces and exploiting local grievances to expand their influence. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action includes enhancing regional intelligence sharing and bolstering socioeconomic initiatives to counteract recruitment.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Sahel-based terror groups are expanding into coastal West Africa primarily due to strategic opportunities in ungoverned spaces and the potential to exploit local economic and social grievances.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The expansion is driven by the collapse of regional security cooperation and the resultant security vacuum, which these groups are exploiting to establish new operational bases.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported as it aligns with the observed patterns of exploiting local grievances and ungoverned spaces, while Hypothesis B is less supported due to limited evidence of direct causation between the collapse of security cooperation and immediate expansion.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Both hypotheses assume that terror groups have the capability and intent to expand operations. Hypothesis A assumes local grievances are significant enough to facilitate recruitment.
– **Red Flags**: Potential over-reliance on historical patterns of terror group behavior without considering new strategic shifts. Insufficient data on the effectiveness of local counter-terrorism measures.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited insight into internal dynamics of terror groups and their strategic decision-making processes.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The expansion could destabilize coastal West Africa, threatening vital trade routes and increasing regional insecurity. There is a risk of cascading effects, including increased recruitment and radicalization, further straining already fragile states. Economic impacts could include disruptions to trade and investment, while geopolitical tensions may rise as international actors respond.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance regional intelligence sharing and cooperation to address cross-border threats.
• Implement socioeconomic initiatives targeting youth unemployment and local grievances to reduce recruitment pools.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Effective regional cooperation and socioeconomic measures curb terror expansion.
  • Worst Case: Terror groups establish strongholds in coastal regions, leading to widespread instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued expansion with intermittent successes in counter-terrorism efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– James Barnett
– Oluwole Ojewale

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus