Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: Haymanot Kasau’s disappearance should be recognized as a kidnapping – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Haymanot Kasau, an Ethiopian-Israeli girl, disappeared a year ago under circumstances that suggest a kidnapping. Despite extensive search efforts and investigations, her whereabouts remain unknown. The case has drawn significant public attention and calls for it to be officially recognized as a kidnapping to allocate more resources. This report highlights the need for enhanced investigative measures and strategic coordination among security agencies to resolve the case and address broader national security concerns.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

Multiple scenarios have been considered, including the possibility of Haymanot being held captive, which poses a threat to national stability by undermining public confidence in security measures.

Key Assumptions Check

The assumption that Haymanot’s disappearance is an isolated incident has been challenged. The lack of resolution in the case suggests potential systemic issues in handling such disappearances.

Indicators Development

Indicators such as increased public protests and calls for government action have been tracked. These reflect growing public dissatisfaction and demand for accountability in handling the case.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The unresolved disappearance of Haymanot Kasau poses several strategic risks, including:

• Undermining public trust in law enforcement and government agencies.
• Potential escalation of civil unrest if the case remains unresolved.
• Negative impact on Israel’s international image regarding human rights and security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Officially recognize the case as a kidnapping to allocate more resources and prioritize the investigation.
• Enhance inter-agency collaboration and intelligence-sharing to improve investigative outcomes.
• Implement community engagement programs to gather more information and support from the public.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Haymanot is found safe, leading to increased public confidence in security measures.

Worst-case scenario: The case remains unresolved, leading to heightened public unrest and international criticism.

Most likely outcome: Continued investigations with gradual progress, necessitating sustained public and governmental support.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions the following individuals and entities:

• Haymanot Kasau
• Tesfaye Kasau
• Amir Smaniya
• Israel Police
• Knesset Committee