Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: Even Iraq Wants to Leave Irans Axis – The Atlantic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iraq is actively seeking to distance itself from Iran’s influence, which is indicative of a broader shift in regional power dynamics. The decline of Iran’s influence in Iraq is marked by political changes and a move towards strengthening ties with other Arab states. This shift poses both opportunities and challenges for regional stability and U.S. interests.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

Competing hypotheses suggest that Iraq’s distancing from Iran is driven by both internal political dynamics and external pressures from other regional powers. The influence of Shiite militias and political parties aligned with Tehran is waning as Iraq seeks broader regional integration.

Indicators Development

Key indicators of Iraq’s shift include the formation of new political coalitions, increased diplomatic engagements with Sunni-majority countries, and public calls for the disbandment of Iran-backed militias.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include:

• Best-case: Iraq successfully integrates into a broader Arab coalition, enhancing regional stability.
• Worst-case: Iran attempts to reassert control through proxy groups, leading to increased internal conflict.
• Most likely: Iraq continues to balance relations with Iran while strengthening ties with other regional powers.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The shift in Iraq’s alignment could lead to a realignment of regional power structures, impacting U.S. strategic interests. Risks include potential destabilization if Iran attempts to regain influence through militant proxies. Economic interests may be affected by changes in regional trade dynamics and energy security.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to support Iraq’s integration into regional coalitions.
• Monitor and counter potential Iranian proxy activities to prevent destabilization.
• Support initiatives that promote political stability and economic development in Iraq.

Outlook:

Projections suggest that Iraq’s realignment is likely to continue, with potential for increased regional cooperation. However, vigilance is required to manage risks associated with Iran’s potential counteractions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Significant individuals and entities mentioned in the report include:

• Muqtada al Sadr
• Mohammed al Sudani
• Mustafa al Kadhimi
• Ahmed al Sharaa
• Fuad Hussein
• Mohsen al Mandalawi