Published on: 2025-02-26

Intelligence Report: Syria’s ‘National Dialogue’ Just for show or genuine transformation – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent ‘National Dialogue’ conference in Damascus has sparked debate over its authenticity as a transformative process for Syria. While some attendees express optimism about the diversity and inclusivity of the event, others criticize the lack of transparency and representation, particularly concerning minority groups. The conference’s outcomes and the formation of a new government remain uncertain, with potential implications for regional stability and international relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

The conference’s goals appear to be aimed at establishing a new government framework, but competing hypotheses suggest it may also serve as a strategic move by existing power structures to maintain control. The involvement of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) complicates the narrative, as their past actions align with extremist objectives.

Indicators Development

Early indicators of potential radicalization or terrorist planning include the participation of HTS and its affiliates. Monitoring shifts in their rhetoric and actions post-conference will be crucial.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios range from a successful transition to a representative government to a superficial change that leaves power dynamics unchanged. The involvement of international actors and the response of minority groups will significantly influence these outcomes.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conference’s outcome could impact national security, with risks of further radicalization if minority groups remain marginalized. Regional stability is at stake, as unresolved tensions could spill over into neighboring countries. Economically, prolonged instability may deter foreign investment and hinder reconstruction efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage inclusive dialogue that genuinely represents all Syrian communities, including minority groups.
• Enhance transparency in the selection process for conference participants to build trust among stakeholders.
• Monitor extremist groups’ activities closely to preempt potential threats.

Outlook:

In a best-case scenario, the dialogue leads to a stable, inclusive government, fostering regional peace. The worst-case scenario involves continued conflict and fragmentation, exacerbating humanitarian crises. The most likely outcome is a protracted negotiation process with incremental progress.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Ammar Alzeer, Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, Ahmad Al Sharaa, and Sawsan Abou Zainedin. Entities such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian government are also highlighted.