Published on: 2025-02-27

Intelligence Report: Sa’ar Some EU parties need to improve anti-Israeli antisemitic rhetoric to get our engagement – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent visit by Gideon Sa’ar to the European Union marks a potential turning point in EU-Israel relations. Key EU figures, including Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and Kaja Kallas, have shown a friendly approach towards Israel. However, challenges remain due to ongoing tensions related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the influence of right-wing parties with antisemitic roots in Europe. Sa’ar emphasizes the need for these parties to distance themselves from antisemitic rhetoric to foster engagement with Israel. The strategic focus includes enhancing cooperation on security and counterterrorism, particularly concerning threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

Analyze competing hypotheses regarding the goals, capabilities, and plans of terrorist organizations.

Indicators Development

Identify early indicators of radicalization or terrorist planning activities.

Scenario Analysis

Explore potential scenarios based on current intelligence about terrorist group activities.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strengthening of EU-Israel relations could lead to increased cooperation in security and counterterrorism efforts. However, the presence of antisemitic elements within some European right-wing parties poses a risk to these relations. The ongoing conflict involving Hamas and Hezbollah, along with Iran’s backing, continues to threaten regional stability. The potential for increased radicalization and terrorist activities remains a significant concern, necessitating vigilant monitoring and strategic countermeasures.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage European right-wing parties to publicly distance themselves from antisemitic rhetoric and activities.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing and joint counterterrorism initiatives between the EU and Israel.
• Implement regulatory measures to monitor and counteract radicalization and terrorist financing.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, EU-Israel relations will strengthen, leading to enhanced security cooperation and reduced influence of antisemitic rhetoric in European politics. In the worst-case scenario, failure to address antisemitic elements could strain relations and increase regional instability. The most likely outcome involves gradual improvement in relations, contingent on continued diplomatic efforts and strategic alignment on security issues.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Gideon Sa’ar, Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, Kaja Kallas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Katz, and various European right-wing parties. These entities play pivotal roles in shaping the current and future landscape of EU-Israel relations.