Published on: 2025-02-28

Intelligence Report: Israel lobbies US to keep Russian bases in a ‘weak’ Syria sources say – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Israel is actively lobbying the United States to support the continued presence of Russian military bases in Syria, aiming to counterbalance Turkey’s growing influence in the region. This strategic move is driven by concerns over potential threats from a new Islamist government in Syria backed by Turkey. Israel’s efforts include high-level meetings in Washington and the circulation of a white paper to influence US policy at a critical juncture in Syria’s political landscape.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH

Israel’s lobbying efforts suggest competing hypotheses: one, that Israel views the Russian presence as a stabilizing force against Turkey; two, that Israel seeks to prevent the empowerment of Islamist factions in Syria.

Indicators Development

Indicators of potential radicalization or terrorist planning include increased cooperation between Turkey and Islamist factions in Syria, and any shifts in US policy regarding sanctions or military presence in the region.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include: a stable Syria with a continued Russian presence; a destabilized region with increased Turkish influence; or a fragmented Syria with ongoing conflicts involving multiple factions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks include potential escalation of regional tensions, particularly between Israel and Turkey. The presence of Islamist factions near Israel’s borders poses a direct threat to national security. Additionally, changes in US policy could impact regional stability and economic interests, particularly in the energy sector.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between Israel and Turkey to reduce regional tensions.
• Strengthen intelligence-sharing mechanisms with regional allies to monitor Islamist activities.
• Consider regulatory adjustments to manage the impact of potential sanctions on economic interests.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, a diplomatic resolution leads to a stable and inclusive Syrian government. The worst-case scenario involves increased conflict and regional instability. The most likely outcome involves ongoing negotiations with fluctuating influence among key players.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations such as Benjamin Netanyahu, Gideon Saar, Tayyip Erdogan, Aron Lund, and Ahmed al Sharaa. These individuals are central to the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the region.