Published on: 2025-12-26

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Here Are 5 Wars Trump Started or Expanded in 2025

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

President Trump’s administration has initiated or expanded military operations in various regions, notably Venezuela and Yemen, under the guise of combating drug cartels and responding to regional threats. The actions have significant geopolitical and domestic ramifications, with moderate confidence in the assessment that these operations are primarily driven by strategic resource interests rather than solely security concerns.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The military actions in Venezuela and Yemen are primarily motivated by strategic resource acquisition and geopolitical influence. Supporting evidence includes the shift in rhetoric from drug interdiction to resource compensation and the blockade of Venezuelan oil. Contradicting evidence could include any genuine, verifiable threats posed by these regions to U.S. national security.
• Hypothesis B: The operations are driven by legitimate security concerns, such as drug trafficking and regional instability. Supporting evidence might include credible intelligence on threats from these regions. However, the lack of congressional and public support, along with the administration’s aggressive posture, contradicts this hypothesis.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the administration’s explicit demands for resource compensation and the strategic focus on oil, which aligns with historical patterns of resource-driven conflicts. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include new intelligence on direct threats to U.S. security from these regions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Trump administration’s actions are primarily driven by economic and geopolitical interests; public opposition will not significantly alter policy; regional actors will respond defensively to U.S. military actions.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the actual threat level posed by Venezuelan and Yemeni actors; internal decision-making processes within the Trump administration.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential cognitive bias in interpreting actions as resource-driven; source bias due to reliance on potentially partisan reporting; risk of strategic deception by U.S. or foreign actors to justify military actions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The expansion of military operations could lead to increased regional instability and strain U.S. relations with Latin American and Middle Eastern countries. This may also exacerbate domestic political divisions and impact U.S. global standing.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential escalation into broader regional conflicts; deterioration of diplomatic relations with affected countries and their allies.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased risk of retaliatory attacks against U.S. interests; potential for new alliances among adversarial states.
• Cyber / Information Space: Likely increase in cyber operations targeting U.S. infrastructure; intensified propaganda and misinformation campaigns.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of global oil markets; domestic economic impacts due to military spending and potential sanctions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance intelligence collection on regional threats; engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions; monitor public sentiment and congressional responses.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for potential retaliatory actions; strengthen alliances with regional partners; invest in capabilities to counter misinformation.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Diplomatic resolutions lead to de-escalation and resource-sharing agreements.
  • Worst: Escalation into broader conflicts with significant geopolitical and economic fallout.
  • Most-Likely: Continued military engagements with periodic diplomatic tensions and economic disruptions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Donald Trump (President of the United States)
• Steven Miller (White House Deputy Chief of Staff)
• Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
• Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary)
• Susan Wiles (White House Chief of Staff)
• Nicolas Maduro (Venezuelan Ruler)

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, military strategy, resource conflicts, geopolitical tensions, U.S. foreign policy, public opposition, regional instability, economic impacts

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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