Published on: 2026-01-01

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Zelensky says peace deal is 90 ready in New Year address

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is reportedly 90% complete, but significant obstacles remain, particularly regarding the control of the Donbas region. The situation is complicated by allegations of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, which Russia claims could affect negotiations. The overall confidence in the assessment of the peace process’s progress is moderate, given the conflicting narratives and potential for misinformation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The peace agreement is genuinely close to completion, with remaining issues primarily centered around territorial control in the Donbas region. Supporting evidence includes Zelensky’s statement on the agreement’s progress and ongoing diplomatic engagements. However, the lack of specific details and the potential for Russian strategic deception are key uncertainties.
• Hypothesis B: The peace agreement’s progress is overstated, and the current situation is a strategic maneuver by Ukraine to gain international support and pressure Russia. This is supported by the timing of the announcement and the emphasis on security guarantees. Contradicting evidence includes the lack of corroboration from independent sources and the potential for Russian disinformation.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to Zelensky’s explicit statements and the context of ongoing negotiations. However, indicators such as independent verification of the agreement’s progress or changes in Russian military posture could shift this judgment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The reported progress in peace negotiations reflects genuine diplomatic efforts; Russia’s allegations of Ukrainian drone attacks are potentially exaggerated or fabricated; international actors will continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Information Gaps: Specific details of the remaining 10% of the peace agreement; independent verification of the alleged drone attack; clarity on the terms of the proposed security guarantees.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential cognitive bias towards optimism in peace negotiations; source bias from Ukrainian and Russian official statements; possible manipulation in the presentation of the drone attack incident.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The development of the peace agreement could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe, with potential impacts on regional stability and international relations.

• Political / Geopolitical: Successful negotiations could lead to a shift in power dynamics in Eastern Europe, potentially reducing Russian influence and increasing Western engagement.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: A peace agreement could stabilize the region, but unresolved territorial disputes may lead to continued low-level conflict or insurgency.
• Cyber / Information Space: Both sides may increase information operations to sway international opinion and domestic support, potentially involving cyber activities.
• Economic / Social: A resolution could lead to economic recovery and social stabilization in Ukraine, but prolonged negotiations or failure could exacerbate economic challenges.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence collection on the peace negotiations; verify claims of drone attacks; engage with international partners to support diplomatic efforts.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for potential escalation; strengthen partnerships with European and NATO allies; enhance capabilities to counter disinformation.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Successful peace agreement leading to regional stability. Worst: Breakdown in talks, leading to renewed conflict. Most-Likely: Prolonged negotiations with intermittent escalations. Triggers include changes in military deployments or diplomatic stances.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
• Vladimir Putin, President of Russia
• Kaja Kallas, EU’s top diplomat
• Donald Trump, Former President of the United States

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, peace negotiations, Ukraine-Russia conflict, Donbas region, international diplomacy, security guarantees, information warfare, geopolitical stability

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

Explore more:
Regional Conflicts Briefs ·
Daily Summary ·
Support us