Published on: 2026-01-14

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Intelligence Report: Security Council Adopting Resolution 2812 2026 Extends Reporting on Houthi Attacks in Red Sea for Six Months

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UN Security Council has extended the reporting on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, reflecting ongoing concerns about maritime security and regional stability. The resolution, supported by the majority but abstained by China and Russia, underscores the persistent threat to international shipping and the global economy. The overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to existing information gaps and geopolitical complexities.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The extension of reporting will enhance international awareness and pressure on the Houthis, potentially deterring future attacks. Evidence includes the broad support for the resolution and the emphasis on maintaining vigilance. However, the abstentions by China and Russia suggest limited consensus on the effectiveness of this approach.
• Hypothesis B: The resolution will have minimal impact on Houthi activities, as they retain the capability and intent to disrupt maritime traffic. The abstentions and statements from China and Russia indicate skepticism about the utility of continued monitoring without additional measures.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the Houthis’ demonstrated resilience and capability to conduct attacks despite international pressure. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include a significant reduction in attacks or increased international enforcement actions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The Houthis will continue to prioritize maritime disruption; international monitoring will influence Houthi behavior; regional partners will support UN resolutions.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on Houthi operational capabilities and intent; the extent of regional support for UN measures; potential shifts in Houthi alliances.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Possible underestimation of Houthi adaptability; source bias from abstaining countries; potential manipulation of attack data by involved parties.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The extension of reporting on Houthi attacks could influence regional security dynamics and international maritime strategies. The resolution’s impact will depend on the enforcement of sanctions and regional cooperation.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased tensions between supporting and abstaining countries; potential for diplomatic friction in the UN Security Council.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Continued threat to maritime security; possible escalation in Houthi tactics if deterrence fails.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting maritime infrastructure; information warfare to influence public perception.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of shipping routes could lead to increased costs and supply chain instability; potential economic impact on Red Sea littoral states.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance maritime surveillance and intelligence-sharing; engage with regional partners to ensure compliance with sanctions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for shipping routes; strengthen diplomatic efforts to address underlying regional conflicts.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Decrease in attacks due to effective deterrence; Worst: Escalation in attacks leading to regional instability; Most-Likely: Continued sporadic attacks with limited international response.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Security Council Members
• Houthi Leadership
• United States Representative
• Greece Representative
• China and Russian Federation Representatives

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, maritime security, UN Security Council, Houthi attacks, Red Sea, international sanctions, geopolitical tensions, supply chain risks

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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