Published on: 2026-01-15

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Intelligence Report: There’s an internet blackout in Iran How are videos and images getting out

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Iranian government’s internet blackout aims to suppress anti-government protests, but Starlink’s satellite internet service is enabling continued communication with the outside world. This development has significant implications for information dissemination and human rights monitoring. The most likely hypothesis is that Starlink’s presence will continue to facilitate protester communication despite government efforts to suppress it. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to information gaps and potential bias in reporting.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Starlink’s satellite internet is effectively countering the Iranian government’s blackout, allowing protesters to communicate and share information. This is supported by reports of increased Starlink receiver use in Iran and the historical precedent of its use in Ukraine. However, the extent of Starlink’s penetration and effectiveness in Iran remains uncertain.
• Hypothesis B: The Iranian government’s efforts to suppress Starlink usage will eventually succeed, significantly reducing the flow of information from protest areas. This is supported by Iran’s legal actions and criminalization of Starlink, but contradicted by reports of continued receiver growth.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the reported increase in Starlink receivers and the lack of effective government measures to completely halt its use. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include new regulatory or technical measures by Iran to block Starlink signals or a significant decrease in protester communications.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Starlink’s service is operational and accessible in Iran; Iranian authorities lack the technical means to fully block satellite internet; protester communications rely heavily on Starlink.
• Information Gaps: Exact number of Starlink receivers in Iran; effectiveness of Iranian countermeasures; comprehensive independent verification of protester casualty figures.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in activist reporting; reliance on unverified casualty figures; possible exaggeration of Starlink’s impact by interested parties.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could alter the dynamics of information control in Iran, potentially emboldening protesters and complicating government suppression efforts. Over time, this may influence regional stability and international relations.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased international scrutiny on Iran; potential diplomatic tensions with countries supporting Starlink’s operations.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Enhanced protester coordination and resilience; potential for increased government crackdowns.
• Cyber / Information Space: Challenges to state-controlled information narratives; potential cyber efforts to disrupt satellite communications.
• Economic / Social: Potential impact on economic stability due to prolonged unrest; social cohesion may be strained by continued protests and government responses.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor Starlink activity and Iranian countermeasures; engage with international partners to assess the situation; support independent verification of protest-related information.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for information dissemination; consider partnerships to support secure communications in restrictive environments.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Starlink continues to enable communication, leading to peaceful resolution of protests.
  • Worst: Iranian government effectively suppresses Starlink, leading to increased violence and information blackout.
  • Most-Likely: Starlink remains partially operational, allowing limited but impactful communication.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• SpaceX (Starlink)
• Iranian Government
• Human Rights Activists News Agency
• Farzaneh Badiei (Internet Policy Researcher)
• Jonathan McDowell (Satellite Expert)
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, internet censorship, satellite communications, human rights, protest movements, Iran, information warfare, geopolitical tensions

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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