Published on: 2026-01-29

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Intelligence Report: What could happen if the US strikes Iran Here are seven scenarios

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most likely outcome of a US strike on Iran is the survival of the regime, potentially leading to a military rule dominated by the IRGC. This scenario poses significant geopolitical and security risks, with moderate confidence in this assessment. Key affected parties include regional neighbors, US military forces, and global energy markets.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The US strike leads to the collapse of the Iranian regime, resulting in a transition to democracy. This is supported by the historical precedent of regime changes in Iraq and Libya but contradicted by the chaotic aftermaths and the entrenched Iranian security apparatus. Key uncertainties include the Iranian public’s response and the regime’s resilience.
• Hypothesis B: The Iranian regime survives the US strike, potentially transitioning to military rule. This is supported by the regime’s historical resilience and the strength of the IRGC. Contradicting evidence includes the potential for significant internal dissent and international pressure.
• Assessment: Hypothesis B is currently better supported due to the IRGC’s entrenched power and the regime’s historical ability to withstand external pressures. Indicators that could shift this judgment include significant defections within the Iranian military or widespread public uprisings.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The IRGC maintains control over military and security forces; US strikes are limited in scope; international actors do not intervene directly.
• Information Gaps: The current state of internal dissent within Iran; the readiness and capability of the IRGC to assume control; potential external support for regime change.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential overestimation of US military precision; underestimation of Iranian public support for the regime; possible misinformation from Iranian state media.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The development could lead to increased regional instability and a shift in power dynamics, affecting global security and economic interests.

• Political / Geopolitical: Escalation of tensions between Iran and neighboring countries, potential for proxy conflicts.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased risk of retaliatory attacks against US interests and allies, heightened threat environment.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber-attacks from Iranian actors as a form of retaliation.
• Economic / Social: Disruption in global oil markets, potential for economic sanctions impacting Iranian society.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase intelligence monitoring of Iranian military movements, enhance security measures for US assets in the region, engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen alliances with regional partners, develop contingency plans for potential refugee flows, enhance cyber defense capabilities.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Regime moderates policies under pressure. Worst: Prolonged conflict with regional destabilization. Most-Likely: Regime survives with increased military influence, triggering regional power shifts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
• Basij Paramilitary Force
• US Military Forces
• Iranian Government Leadership

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, military intervention, regime change, IRGC, regional stability, US-Iran relations, geopolitical risk, energy markets

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Forecast futures under uncertainty via probabilistic logic.

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