Published on: 2026-02-05

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Intelligence Report: Venezuela defies US vows continued alliance with Russia and China

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Venezuelan government is asserting its sovereignty by maintaining alliances with Russia and China despite U.S. pressure following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This development may lead to increased geopolitical tensions and economic instability in the region. The most likely hypothesis is that Venezuela will continue its current alliances, with moderate confidence in this judgment due to the limited information on internal Venezuelan political dynamics.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Venezuela will maintain its alliances with Russia and China, leveraging these relationships to counter U.S. influence. Supporting evidence includes public statements by Venezuelan officials and existing strategic agreements. Key uncertainties include the internal stability of the Venezuelan government and potential shifts in international support.
• Hypothesis B: Venezuela may eventually succumb to U.S. pressure and reduce its ties with Russia and China to avoid further economic sanctions or military actions. Contradicting evidence includes Venezuela’s strong public stance on sovereignty and the strategic importance of its alliances with Russia and China.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the firm public declarations by Venezuelan officials and the strategic importance of its alliances. Indicators that could shift this judgment include changes in internal political stability or shifts in international diplomatic support.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Venezuela’s government remains stable; Russia and China continue to support Venezuela; U.S. actions are limited to diplomatic and economic measures.
• Information Gaps: Detailed insights into the internal political dynamics within Venezuela and the specific terms of the strategic agreements with Russia and China.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in Venezuelan official statements; risk of misinformation from all parties involved to manipulate international perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could lead to heightened geopolitical tensions and economic instability in Latin America, with potential ripple effects globally.

• Political / Geopolitical: Escalation of U.S.-Venezuela tensions; potential for increased Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible destabilization of regional security; increased risk of proxy conflicts.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting Venezuelan and U.S. interests.
• Economic / Social: Economic instability in Venezuela; potential impact on global oil markets and regional economic conditions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase monitoring of Venezuelan political developments; engage with regional allies to assess potential impacts.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for potential economic disruptions; strengthen diplomatic channels with key stakeholders.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Diplomatic resolution leads to stabilization and renewed international cooperation.
  • Worst: Escalation into regional conflict with significant economic and security impacts.
  • Most-Likely: Continued diplomatic standoff with sporadic economic and political tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Nicolás Maduro – President of Venezuela
• Delcy Rodriguez – Venezuelan Vice President
• Jesus Rafael Salazar Velasquez – Venezuelan Ambassador to Russia
• Remigio Ceballos – Venezuelan Ambassador to China
• Donald Trump – U.S. President

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, geopolitics, international relations, sanctions, energy security, regional stability, diplomatic tensions, sovereignty

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

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