Published on: 2026-02-21

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Food and War in Sudan

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have entrenched themselves in Sudan’s agrifood system, leveraging economic activities to fund military operations. This economic competition is a significant factor in the ongoing conflict. The most likely hypothesis is that this competition will continue to exacerbate instability in Sudan, affecting regional security and economic conditions. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to existing information gaps.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The economic rivalry between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF is the primary driver of the conflict. This is supported by their extensive involvement in the agrifood sector and the outbreak of war following economic tensions. However, uncertainties remain regarding the influence of external actors and internal political dynamics.
• Hypothesis B: The conflict is primarily driven by political power struggles, with economic competition being a secondary factor. This hypothesis considers historical patterns of military influence in Sudanese politics but lacks direct evidence linking political motives to the current conflict.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to direct evidence of economic competition preceding the conflict. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include new data on political alliances or external interventions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The military and RSF will continue to prioritize economic gains over political stability; external actors have limited influence on the conflict’s economic dimensions; the agrifood sector remains a critical revenue source for both parties.
• Information Gaps: Detailed financial data on military and RSF agrifood operations; insights into external support for either party; comprehensive political motivations behind the conflict.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in informant reports due to political affiliations; risk of deception in public statements by military and RSF leaders; cognitive bias towards economic explanations over political ones.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan could lead to increased regional instability and economic disruption, affecting neighboring countries and international markets.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for regional escalation if neighboring states become involved; risk of international sanctions impacting Sudan’s economy.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased risk of terrorism and insurgency as non-state actors exploit the conflict; potential for refugee flows destabilizing neighboring regions.
• Cyber / Information Space: Limited information available; potential for misinformation campaigns by involved parties to sway public opinion.
• Economic / Social: Disruption in agrifood production could lead to food insecurity; economic instability may exacerbate social tensions and humanitarian crises.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase monitoring of agrifood sector activities; engage with regional partners to mediate conflict; enhance intelligence collection on military and RSF operations.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for affected agrifood supply chains; strengthen partnerships with regional organizations to address humanitarian needs; build capacity for conflict resolution.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Peace negotiations lead to reduced hostilities and economic stabilization. Worst: Escalation into regional conflict with severe humanitarian impacts. Most-Likely: Prolonged conflict with intermittent ceasefires and continued economic disruption.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Sudanese Armed Forces
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, military economics, agrifood systems, Sudan conflict, regional stability, non-state actors, economic competition, humanitarian impact

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Structured challenge to expose and correct biases.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Deconstruct and track propaganda or influence narratives.

Explore more:
Regional Conflicts Briefs ·
Daily Summary ·
Support us