Published on: 2026-02-25

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Intelligence Report: CISA and Partners Release Guidance for Ongoing Global Exploitation of Cisco SD-WAN Systems

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The exploitation of Cisco SD-WAN systems by malicious cyber actors is a significant threat to global network security, particularly affecting Federal Civilian Executive Branch (FCEB) agencies. The most likely hypothesis is that these actors are leveraging known vulnerabilities to gain unauthorized access and establish persistence. The overall confidence level in this assessment is moderate, given the limited information on the actors’ identities and motives.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Malicious actors are exploiting Cisco SD-WAN vulnerabilities primarily for espionage purposes, targeting sensitive government and corporate networks. This is supported by the coordinated response from multiple national cybersecurity agencies, indicating a high-value target. However, the specific identity and objectives of the actors remain unclear.
• Hypothesis B: The exploitation is part of a broader campaign to disrupt critical infrastructure, potentially by state-sponsored actors. This hypothesis is less supported due to the lack of direct evidence linking the activity to infrastructure disruption efforts.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the observed targeting of government networks and the involvement of multiple national cybersecurity agencies. Indicators such as increased targeting of non-governmental critical infrastructure could shift this judgment towards Hypothesis B.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The vulnerabilities are being actively exploited by sophisticated actors; the primary targets are high-value government and corporate networks; the exploitation is part of a coordinated campaign.
• Information Gaps: Specific identity and motives of the actors; the full scope of compromised systems; potential links to state-sponsored activities.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential confirmation bias in attributing the activity to state-sponsored actors; reliance on reports from involved cybersecurity agencies may introduce source bias.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing exploitation of Cisco SD-WAN systems could lead to significant security breaches and data exfiltration, impacting both governmental and private sectors. Over time, this could erode trust in digital infrastructure and necessitate increased cybersecurity measures.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential escalation in cyber tensions between states if state-sponsored actors are involved.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber-attacks, potentially affecting national security.
• Cyber / Information Space: Heightened alert and response measures from cybersecurity agencies; potential for increased cyber espionage activities.
• Economic / Social: Possible economic impacts due to disruptions in services and increased costs for cybersecurity enhancements.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Conduct thorough inventories and assessments of Cisco SD-WAN systems; apply all available patches and security updates; enhance monitoring and logging capabilities.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships for information sharing on cyber threats; invest in cybersecurity training and awareness programs; enhance incident response capabilities.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Rapid patching and response mitigate the threat with minimal impact.
  • Worst: Widespread breaches lead to significant data loss and infrastructure disruption.
  • Most-Likely: Continued exploitation with gradual improvements in defense measures as more information becomes available.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)
• National Security Agency (NSA)
• Australian Signals Directorate’s Australian Cyber Security Centre (ASD’s ACSC)
• Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (Cyber Centre)
• New Zealand National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC-NZ)
• United Kingdom National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC-UK)
• Cisco Systems

7. Thematic Tags

cybersecurity, network vulnerabilities, state-sponsored actors, cyber-espionage, critical infrastructure, information security, SD-WAN systems

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Adversarial Threat Simulation: Model and simulate actions of cyber adversaries to anticipate vulnerabilities and improve resilience.
• Indicators Development: Detect and monitor behavioral or technical anomalies across systems for early threat detection.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Quantify uncertainty and predict cyberattack pathways using probabilistic inference.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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