Published on: 2026-02-25

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Intelligence Report: 10th India-Israel Joint Working Group Meeting on counter terrorism held in New Delhi

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The 10th India-Israel Joint Working Group meeting on counter-terrorism emphasized enhanced bilateral cooperation against terrorism, including technological threats like UAVs and AI. The meeting reaffirmed commitments to multilateral collaboration, with moderate confidence in sustained cooperation given shared strategic interests and recent regional threats. Key stakeholders include India, Israel, and multilateral bodies like the UN and FATF.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The meeting reflects a genuine and sustained commitment by both nations to counter-terrorism cooperation, driven by shared strategic interests and recent regional threats. Supporting evidence includes the strong condemnation of terrorism and the focus on multilateral cooperation. Key uncertainties involve the depth of operational collaboration and potential geopolitical shifts.
• Hypothesis B: The meeting is primarily symbolic, with limited practical impact on counter-terrorism efforts. This could be supported by the lack of specific operational commitments or new initiatives announced. However, the explicit focus on emerging threats and multilateral platforms contradicts this view.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the explicit commitments to multilateral cooperation and addressing emerging threats. Indicators such as increased joint operations or intelligence sharing would further support this judgment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Both countries have the political will to sustain cooperation; multilateral platforms will effectively support counter-terrorism efforts; technological threats are a shared priority.
• Information Gaps: Specific operational outcomes from the meeting; details on new initiatives or agreements; level of intelligence sharing and joint operations.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential overstatement of cooperation levels due to diplomatic language; confirmation bias in interpreting shared interests; possible underreporting of internal disagreements.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could enhance bilateral and multilateral counter-terrorism efforts, influencing regional security dynamics. However, geopolitical tensions or shifts in domestic priorities could alter this trajectory.

• Political / Geopolitical: Strengthened India-Israel ties may influence regional alliances and counter-terrorism policies.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Potential increase in joint operations and intelligence sharing could alter threat environments.
• Cyber / Information Space: Focus on technological threats may lead to enhanced cyber defense collaborations.
• Economic / Social: Improved security could bolster economic stability, but increased counter-terrorism measures may affect civil liberties.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor for announcements of specific initiatives or joint operations; engage with multilateral platforms to assess support levels.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures against technological threats; strengthen partnerships with multilateral bodies; enhance intelligence sharing protocols.
• Scenario Outlook: Best: Enhanced cooperation leads to significant counter-terrorism successes. Worst: Geopolitical tensions disrupt collaboration. Most-Likely: Continued cooperation with gradual operational improvements.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Vinod Bahade, Joint Secretary (Counter Terrorism), Ministry of External Affairs, India
• Nadav Eschar, Head of Bureau, Strategic Affairs Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, India-Israel relations, multilateral cooperation, UAV threats, cybersecurity, strategic partnerships, regional security

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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