Published on: 2026-02-25

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Intelligence Report: Qatar’s school curriculum – anti-infidel and pro-Jihad

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Qatar’s school curriculum continues to promote anti-infidel and pro-Jihad narratives, potentially undermining U.S. and Western interests in combating extremism. The curriculum’s alignment with state-controlled media and mosque sermons suggests a deliberate state policy. This poses risks to regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate due to the consistency of the reported curriculum content over time.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Qatar’s curriculum reflects a strategic state policy to maintain ideological influence and support for radical elements. This is supported by consistent reports of anti-Semitic and pro-Jihad content, and alignment with state-controlled media narratives. However, the lack of direct statements from Qatari officials leaves some uncertainty.
• Hypothesis B: The curriculum content is a legacy issue, not reflective of current state policy, and persists due to bureaucratic inertia. This hypothesis is less supported given the active reprinting of content and alignment with other state-controlled narratives.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to the deliberate and consistent nature of the curriculum content and its alignment with broader state-controlled narratives. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include official Qatari statements or actions indicating a policy shift.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The curriculum content is state-sanctioned; Qatar’s leadership is aware of and supports the curriculum; the curriculum influences societal attitudes significantly.
• Information Gaps: Direct insights into internal Qatari decision-making processes regarding curriculum content; potential international pressures on Qatar to reform.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reporting from sources critical of Qatar; risk of Qatar using public diplomacy to mask true intentions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could exacerbate regional tensions and hinder counter-terrorism efforts by fostering extremist ideologies. It may also impact Qatar’s diplomatic relations with Western countries.

• Political / Geopolitical: Strained relations with Western allies; potential isolation within the Gulf Cooperation Council.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased radicalization risk within Qatar and potentially exported to other regions.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased propaganda and misinformation campaigns aligned with curriculum narratives.
• Economic / Social: Social divisions within Qatar; potential impact on foreign investment and expatriate workforce stability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase monitoring of Qatari educational materials; engage diplomatically to express concerns and seek clarification on state policies.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships with regional allies to counter extremist narratives; support educational reform initiatives where feasible.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Qatar reforms curriculum, aligning with international norms, reducing regional tensions.
  • Worst: Curriculum fuels regional extremism, leading to increased terrorism and geopolitical instability.
  • Most-Likely: Continued status quo with periodic diplomatic tensions and regional unease.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Emir of Qatar)
• Not clearly identifiable from open sources in this snippet.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, Middle East politics, educational reform, religious extremism, geopolitical stability, international relations, state-controlled media

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.
• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Empirical → systemic → worldview → myth layers.

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