Published on: 2025-03-05

Intelligence Report: Arab League had no choice but to find alternative to Trump’s proposal to resettle 23 million Gazans in Egypt and Jordan – The Irish Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Arab League has developed a reconstruction plan for Gaza as an alternative to Donald Trump’s proposal to resettle 23 million Gazans in Egypt and Jordan. The plan aims to enhance regional stability by linking Gaza’s recovery to direct negotiations between Palestine and Israel, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan includes deploying an international peacekeeping force and creating a governance committee for Gaza. This initiative seeks to address humanitarian needs while maintaining regional security.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

The Arab League’s decision to reject Trump’s proposal and adopt a reconstruction plan suggests a strategic move to maintain regional autonomy and stability. Competing hypotheses include the potential for increased influence of external powers in the region and the risk of further disunity among Arab states.

Indicators Development

Key indicators of the plan’s success include the establishment of a functioning governance committee, successful deployment of peacekeeping forces, and progress in infrastructure reconstruction. Early signs of radicalization or unrest could manifest if these indicators are not met.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include successful implementation leading to improved regional stability, partial implementation resulting in continued tensions, or failure leading to increased conflict and humanitarian crises.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The rejection of Trump’s proposal and adoption of the Arab League’s plan carries significant implications for regional stability. Risks include potential backlash from displaced populations, economic strain on host countries, and the possibility of escalated tensions between Israel and Palestine. The plan’s success is contingent on international cooperation and effective governance.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage international support for the Arab League’s plan to ensure adequate funding and resources.
• Promote diplomatic engagement between Israel and Palestine to facilitate direct negotiations.
• Enhance security measures to prevent radicalization and ensure the safety of peacekeeping forces.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful implementation leads to regional stability and improved living conditions in Gaza. Worst-case scenario: Failure to implement the plan results in increased conflict and humanitarian crises. Most likely scenario: Partial success with ongoing challenges in governance and security.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Donald Trump, Netanyahu, Ahmed al Sharaa, and Sami Abu Zuhri. Key entities include the Arab League, United Nations Security Council, and Hamas.