Published on: 2025-03-23

Intelligence Report: Kremlin Expects ‘Difficult Negotiations’ in Saudi Arabia Over Ukraine – CNA

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Kremlin anticipates challenging negotiations in Saudi Arabia regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite efforts for a temporary ceasefire, Russian strikes continue unabated, causing civilian casualties. The talks aim to address the Black Sea grain deal and potential ceasefire agreements, but significant obstacles remain. The outcome of these negotiations could influence regional stability and international relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The negotiations in Saudi Arabia involve Ukrainian and Russian delegations, with a focus on achieving a temporary ceasefire and discussing the Black Sea grain deal. Despite some optimism from certain envoys, the Kremlin has downplayed expectations for a rapid resolution. The continuation of Russian strikes, including recent drone attacks on Kyiv, underscores the complexity of reaching an agreement. The discussions also involve the United States, with potential implications for broader geopolitical dynamics.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. The failure to achieve a ceasefire could lead to further escalation, impacting civilian safety and economic interests, particularly in the Black Sea region. The disruption of Ukrainian agricultural exports could exacerbate global food security issues. Additionally, the negotiations may affect diplomatic relations between involved nations, influencing future geopolitical alignments.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement and support for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement to prevent further civilian casualties and stabilize the region.
• Facilitate dialogue between involved parties to address the Black Sea grain deal and ensure the safe navigation of exports.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing and coordination among allies to monitor developments and mitigate potential threats.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful negotiations lead to a temporary ceasefire and progress on the Black Sea grain deal, reducing regional tensions and improving humanitarian conditions.

Worst-case scenario: Talks collapse, leading to intensified hostilities and further destabilization of the region, with significant humanitarian and economic repercussions.

Most likely outcome: Incremental progress is made, but significant challenges remain, requiring sustained diplomatic efforts and international support.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin, and Zelenskyy. These individuals play crucial roles in the ongoing negotiations and diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict in Ukraine.