Published on: 2025-03-25

Intelligence Report: Sudan’s Civil War – Military Advances and Future Projections

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese military has made significant advances against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), potentially marking a turning point in the ongoing civil war. Despite these gains, the conflict remains complex with risks of further regional destabilization. Immediate strategic actions are required to prevent humanitarian crises and ensure stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Recent military victories by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have shifted the balance of power, with control over strategic locations such as the southeastern border with Ethiopia and the Red Sea coast. The SAF’s recapture of key areas, including the White Nile and Gezira province, indicates a proactive approach in the conflict. However, the RSF maintains strongholds in Darfur and along the southern border, complicating the potential for a swift resolution.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The humanitarian toll is severe, with millions displaced and widespread food insecurity. The potential for further escalation could destabilize neighboring countries, impacting economic interests and international relations. The threat of partition remains a possibility, which could further complicate peace efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to facilitate dialogue between conflicting parties to prevent further escalation.
• Enhance humanitarian aid delivery to affected regions to mitigate the humanitarian crisis.
• Strengthen regional alliances to support peacekeeping initiatives and stabilize border areas.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful negotiations lead to a ceasefire and gradual stabilization, allowing for humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts.

Worst-case scenario: Continued conflict results in further regional destabilization, increased displacement, and a prolonged humanitarian crisis.

Most likely scenario: The conflict persists with intermittent military engagements, requiring sustained international diplomatic and humanitarian intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Key entities include the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces.