Published on: 2025-03-29

Intelligence Report: Sudans army claims latest major victory taking Omdurmans key market – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese army has claimed a significant victory by capturing the Souq Libya, a pivotal commercial hub in Omdurman. This development is part of a series of successful offensives against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The capture of this key market solidifies the army’s gains in Khartoum and its twin city, Omdurman. The victory is seen as a potential turning point in the ongoing conflict, which has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. The army’s control over Omdurman is strategic, given its proximity to major military bases and its intent to secure the entire capital area.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The capture of Souq Libya by the Sudanese army represents a strategic gain in the ongoing conflict with the RSF. This market is a significant commercial hub, and its control could disrupt the RSF’s supply lines and weaken their economic base. The army’s recent successes suggest a shift in battlefield momentum, potentially altering the conflict’s trajectory. However, despite these gains, the RSF retains control over large areas, and fierce clashes continue, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions. The conflict has displaced millions and exacerbated a humanitarian crisis, with widespread hunger and instability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued conflict poses significant risks to national security and regional stability. The humanitarian crisis could worsen, leading to increased displacement and food insecurity. The involvement of external actors, such as alleged support from the United Arab Emirates to the RSF, complicates the situation and could lead to broader regional tensions. The lack of a political settlement or peace process indicates that the conflict may persist, further destabilizing the region and impacting economic interests.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic efforts to facilitate a political settlement and peace process.
• Enhance humanitarian aid to address the immediate needs of displaced populations and mitigate the humanitarian crisis.
• Monitor and address external influences that may exacerbate the conflict, ensuring regional stability.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, diplomatic efforts lead to a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement, stabilizing the region. In the worst-case scenario, the conflict intensifies, leading to further displacement and humanitarian suffering. The most likely outcome is a protracted conflict with intermittent gains by both sides, requiring sustained international attention and intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Abdel Fattah al Burhan
• Mohamed Saleh Abu Halima
• Al Dagalo
• United Arab Emirates
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)