Published on: 2025-04-01

Intelligence Report: Finland joins other Russian neighbours exiting from landmine treaty – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Finland has announced its decision to exit the Ottawa Convention, which bans antipersonnel landmines. This move aligns with similar actions taken by neighboring countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all of which have cited security concerns related to Russia. The decision allows Finland to adapt to changing security dynamics and potentially stockpile landmines if necessary. This development has significant implications for regional security and NATO dynamics.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Finland’s decision to exit the landmine treaty is a strategic response to perceived threats from Russia. This aligns with actions by other Baltic and Eastern European countries, indicating a regional shift in defense postures. The move is part of a broader strategy to enhance military readiness and deterrence capabilities. The announcement coincides with increased defense spending and reflects a growing concern over long-term security threats posed by Russia.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exit from the landmine treaty poses several implications and risks:

• National Security: Enhancing military capabilities could deter aggression but may also escalate tensions with Russia.
• Regional Stability: The collective exit from the treaty by multiple countries may lead to an arms race in the region.
• Economic Interests: Increased defense spending could strain national budgets and impact economic growth.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Strengthen diplomatic efforts to maintain open channels of communication with Russia to prevent misunderstandings and escalation.
• Enhance collaboration with NATO allies to ensure coordinated defense strategies and resource allocation.
• Invest in advanced technologies to improve defense capabilities while minimizing reliance on landmines.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Finland’s actions lead to strengthened deterrence without provoking further tensions.

Worst-case scenario: The regional security environment deteriorates, leading to increased militarization and potential conflict.

Most likely outcome: Finland and its neighbors continue to bolster defenses while engaging in diplomatic efforts to manage relations with Russia.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Petteri Orpo
• Alexander Stubb
• Dmitry Peskov
• Vladimir Putin
• Keir Starmer
• Donald Trump