Published on: 2025-04-04

Intelligence Report: UN envoy urges international support for West Africa and the Sahel – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The UN envoy has highlighted the urgent need for international support in West Africa and the Sahel due to increasing terrorist threats and political instability. Key areas of concern include the Lake Chad Basin and the central Sahel, where terrorist groups continue to operate. Despite some political progress, the region faces significant security and humanitarian challenges. Immediate diplomatic and financial support is essential to maintain regional security forces and foster political stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The security situation in West Africa and the Sahel remains precarious, with terrorist activities persisting in the Lake Chad Basin, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. The recent withdrawal of forces by Niger has heightened security concerns. Political progress is noted in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Gambia, but challenges persist, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau. Human rights violations and attacks on civilians continue to undermine efforts to combat violent extremism. Economic pressures, including high inflation and climate shocks, further strain the region’s stability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing instability poses significant risks to regional and international security. The inability to effectively combat terrorism could lead to increased violence and displacement, further destabilizing the region. Political tensions and unresolved electoral issues may exacerbate conflicts, undermining governance and economic development. The humanitarian crisis, marked by displacement and educational disruptions, threatens long-term regional resilience.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts and financial support to strengthen regional security forces and political institutions.
• Promote cross-border cooperation and intelligence sharing to effectively counter terrorist threats.
• Invest in economic development and infrastructure to address underlying socio-economic challenges.
• Support initiatives that promote human rights and protect civilians, particularly in conflict zones.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Increased international support leads to improved security and political stability, fostering economic growth and development.

Worst-case scenario: Continued instability and insufficient support result in escalating violence and humanitarian crises.

Most likely outcome: Gradual progress with intermittent setbacks, requiring sustained international engagement and support.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Leonardo Santos Simo, Adama Barrow, and Ousainou Darboe. The Joint Multinational Force and the anti-jihadist joint force in the Sahel are critical entities in the regional security framework.