Published on: 2025-04-06

Intelligence Report: Urgent Peace Efforts Needed to Prevent New Civil War in South Sudan and Its Mix-up with the Ongoing Civil War in Sudan – Globalresearch.ca

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in South Sudan is precarious, with the potential for a new civil war exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Key leaders, including Kiir and Machar, are central to maintaining peace, but recent developments threaten stability. Immediate international intervention is necessary to prevent further escalation and humanitarian crises.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

South Sudan, despite its oil wealth, remains in a state of high poverty and instability. The fragile peace agreement between Kiir and Machar is under threat due to ethnic tensions and external influences from the Sudanese civil war. The alignment of the RSF with factions in South Sudan increases the risk of conflict spillover, while the SAF seeks to assert control over border areas. The health of Kiir and the potential rise of Machar as a successor add further uncertainty.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential for renewed civil war in South Sudan poses significant risks to regional stability and economic interests, particularly in oil exports. The humanitarian crisis could worsen, with increased displacement and ethnic violence. The involvement of external factions like the RSF and SAF complicates peace efforts and may lead to broader regional conflicts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to strengthen the peace agreement between Kiir and Machar.
• Increase humanitarian aid and support to address immediate needs and prevent further displacement.
• Encourage regional cooperation to manage border tensions and prevent external influence from exacerbating conflicts.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Strengthened peace agreements and international support stabilize the region, reducing ethnic tensions and improving economic conditions.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation into full-scale civil war, with significant humanitarian and economic repercussions.
Most likely outcome: Continued instability with sporadic violence, requiring sustained international engagement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Kiir, Machar, and entities like the RSF and SAF. Their actions and alignments are crucial to the unfolding situation in South Sudan and its interaction with the Sudanese civil war.