Published on: 2025-04-07

Intelligence Report: Syrias New Rulers Get a Makeover – Thenation.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent developments in Syria, under the leadership of Ahmed Al Shara, signify a strategic shift in governance and public image. The transformation includes a more moderate public appearance and outreach to various ethnic and religious communities. However, underlying tensions, particularly with the Alawi community, pose significant risks to stability. The potential for sectarian violence remains high, necessitating close monitoring and strategic interventions to prevent escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Ahmed Al Shara has adopted a new public persona, shedding his previous militant image. This rebranding effort includes engaging with international delegations and allowing religious freedoms, such as Christian celebrations, to continue without interference. Despite these changes, there are reports of sectarian tensions, particularly involving the Alawi community, which could destabilize the region. The disbandment of the old Syrian national army and police services has left a security vacuum, reminiscent of post-Saddam Iraq, which could be exploited by disenfranchised groups.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks include potential sectarian violence, particularly between Alawis and Sunni groups. The economic impact of continued instability could hinder reconstruction efforts and foreign investment. There is also a risk of increased insurgency activities if disenfranchised groups, such as former military personnel, align against the current government. The regional stability of the Middle East could be affected, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate tensions between different ethnic and religious groups.
• Support initiatives aimed at economic reconstruction and development to alleviate poverty and disenfranchisement.
• Encourage the establishment of inclusive governance structures to prevent sectarian bias.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, Ahmed Al Shara‘s government successfully stabilizes the region through inclusive policies and economic development. In the worst-case scenario, sectarian violence escalates, leading to widespread instability and potential humanitarian crises. The most likely outcome involves a continued period of tension with intermittent violence, requiring sustained international attention and intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Ahmed Al Shara and John Sawers. It also references entities like Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and the Alawi community. These individuals and groups play crucial roles in the current dynamics and future developments in Syria.