Published on: 2025-04-07

Intelligence Report: Will Iranian-backed militias in Iraq disarm over fear of Trump admin – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), are unlikely to disarm despite external pressures, including those from the Trump administration. These militias, deeply rooted in Iraq and closely linked to Iran, have significant influence and power, making disarmament a complex issue. The strategic recommendation is to monitor these groups closely, focusing on their activities and potential impacts on regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The PMF, consisting of approximately thirty militias, has strong ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Key groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and the Badr Organization have historically acted as proxies for Iranian interests in Iraq. The fall of Saddam Hussein allowed these militias to gain power, eventually integrating into Iraq’s security apparatus. Despite being officially part of the Iraqi government, these militias operate with significant autonomy, often engaging in activities that undermine state authority and regional stability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued operation of Iranian-backed militias poses several risks:

• National Security: These militias have the potential to destabilize Iraq, challenging the central government’s authority and complicating U.S. and allied operations in the region.
• Regional Stability: Their activities in Syria and threats against Israel could escalate tensions, leading to broader regional conflicts.
• Economic Interests: Instability in Iraq could disrupt oil production and supply, affecting global markets.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance intelligence monitoring of militia activities to anticipate and mitigate potential threats.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to strengthen the Iraqi government’s control over these militias.
• Support initiatives aimed at integrating militia members into civilian roles to reduce their reliance on armed power.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic and strategic efforts lead to the gradual disarmament and integration of militias, stabilizing Iraq and improving regional security.

Worst-case scenario: Increased militia activity and external pressures result in heightened conflict, destabilizing Iraq and the broader Middle East.

Most likely outcome: Militia groups maintain their influence, with sporadic conflicts and continued regional tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Significant individuals include Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Qasem Soleimani, whose past actions have shaped the current landscape of militia power in Iraq. Key entities include the Popular Mobilization Forces and groups like Kataib Hezbollah and the Badr Organization.