Published on: 2025-04-10

Intelligence Report: What can Iraq do with alleged ‘IS families’ returning from Syria – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Iraq faces significant challenges in reintegrating families associated with the Islamic State (IS) returning from Syria. The presence of these families poses potential security risks and societal tensions. Strategic recommendations include enhancing vetting processes, providing psychological support, and fostering community integration programs to mitigate risks and promote stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The return of families associated with IS from Syria to Iraq has created a complex situation. These families, often stigmatized, include individuals who may have been coerced into IS activities or have no affiliation with the group. The Iraqi government’s slow repatriation process from al-Hol camp highlights logistical and political challenges. The population of al-Hol, once a temporary refuge, has become a prolonged detention scenario, exacerbating humanitarian concerns.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The reintegration of IS-associated families poses several risks:

• National Security: Potential radicalization and recruitment within communities if not properly managed.
• Regional Stability: Increased tensions between communities, potentially leading to violence.
• Economic Interests: Strain on social services and welfare systems as returning families require support.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance vetting and monitoring processes to identify potential security threats among returnees.
• Develop community-based programs to facilitate the integration of returnees, reducing stigma and promoting social cohesion.
• Invest in psychological support services for returnees to address trauma and prevent radicalization.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful integration of returnees leads to improved community relations and reduced security threats.
Worst-case scenario: Failure to integrate returnees results in increased radicalization and societal tensions.
Most likely scenario: Gradual progress in integration with ongoing challenges in certain regions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Sara al-Mansour: An Iraqi journalist providing insights into the societal impact of returning IS families.
• Raed Aldulaimi: A professor offering analysis on the composition and challenges of al-Hol camp.