Published on: 2025-04-10

Intelligence Report: Sudan Tells Top Court UAE ‘Driving Force’ Behind ‘Genocide’ – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Sudan has accused the United Arab Emirates of being a key supporter of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the ongoing conflict in Darfur, alleging complicity in genocide against the Masalit community. The UAE denies these allegations, labeling them as politically motivated. The case is currently before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), with jurisdictional challenges anticipated due to the UAE’s reservation to the Genocide Convention. The outcome of this case could have significant implications for regional stability and international diplomatic relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The conflict in Darfur has escalated with the Sudanese government accusing the UAE of providing logistical and military support to the RSF. This support allegedly includes arms shipments, which Sudan claims are fueling the genocide. The UAE’s rebuttal focuses on the lack of jurisdiction due to its reservation to the Genocide Convention, suggesting that Sudan’s claims are unfounded and politically motivated. The legal proceedings at the ICJ will hinge on jurisdictional interpretations, potentially setting precedents for international law and accountability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The allegations against the UAE, if proven, could strain diplomatic relations and affect regional alliances. The ongoing conflict poses risks to national security within Sudan and threatens regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Economic interests, particularly those related to resource extraction and trade routes, may also be jeopardized. The humanitarian crisis, marked by significant civilian casualties and displacement, continues to escalate, drawing international condemnation and pressure for resolution.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Sudan and the UAE to de-escalate tensions and seek a peaceful resolution.
• Support international monitoring and verification mechanisms to ensure compliance with arms embargoes and humanitarian laws.
• Enhance regional cooperation to address the root causes of the conflict and support peace-building initiatives.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The ICJ facilitates a diplomatic resolution, leading to a cessation of hostilities and a framework for peace talks.

Worst-case scenario: The conflict intensifies, with increased international involvement and further destabilization of the region.

Most likely outcome: Protracted legal proceedings at the ICJ, with continued international pressure for a negotiated settlement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Muawia Osman
• Reem Ketait
• Michael Becker
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Masalit community