Published on: 2025-04-10

Intelligence Report: Sudan Civil War Despite Appearances This Is Not a Failed State Yet – The Conversation Africa

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have regained control of Khartoum, pushing back the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Despite the SAF’s military success, their legitimacy is questioned due to past actions. The conflict continues with significant human rights violations reported. The situation remains volatile with potential regional implications.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The SAF has reclaimed most of Khartoum from the RSF, who had occupied the city since April 2023. The SAF’s leader, Abdel Fattah Burhan, previously seized power in 2021, undermining their claim to legitimacy. Reports of human rights abuses by both the SAF and RSF highlight the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The RSF maintains control in western Sudan, continuing aggressive actions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to regional stability, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis could lead to increased refugee flows, straining resources in the region. Economic interests are threatened by continued instability, impacting trade and investment opportunities.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic efforts to mediate between the SAF and RSF to prevent further escalation.
• Implement targeted sanctions on individuals responsible for human rights violations.
• Support humanitarian aid initiatives to address the immediate needs of affected populations.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: A negotiated settlement leads to a cessation of hostilities and a path towards democratic governance.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict results in widespread regional instability and humanitarian disaster.
Most likely scenario: Continued sporadic conflict with intermittent negotiations, leading to a protracted stalemate.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Abdel Fattah Burhan and entities like the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). These actors play crucial roles in the ongoing conflict and its resolution.