Published on: 2025-04-14

Intelligence Report: The global economy is in turmoil Now is the time to build a new order – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The global economy faces unprecedented challenges, exacerbated by climate change, rising neo-fascism, and increasing militarism. The Global South is positioned to redefine international economic relations through the 2024 Program of Action, which seeks to address the developmental divide and promote sustainable prosperity. This initiative is critical as the Global North’s cohesion is weakened by unilateral policies. Immediate collective action in climate, industry, finance, technology, and governance is necessary to achieve these objectives.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The global economic landscape is characterized by instability due to geopolitical tensions and environmental crises. The 2024 Program of Action, launched by the Havana Group of the Progressive International, proposes a new economic framework to bridge the gap between the Global North and South. The program outlines 31 measures focusing on climate sovereignty, clean energy, and equitable resource exchange. The historical context of the 1974 initiative highlights the potential for success, given the increased political and economic influence of Global South countries.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The potential for a new economic order presents both opportunities and risks. Key risks include:

• Escalation of geopolitical tensions if Global North countries resist the new order.
• Economic instability due to shifts in trade and resource management policies.
• Potential backlash against climate initiatives from industries reliant on fossil fuels.

Strategically, the success of the 2024 Program of Action could lead to a more balanced global economy, reducing poverty and inequality. However, failure to implement these measures may exacerbate existing disparities and environmental degradation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement between Global North and South to foster cooperation on the 2024 Program of Action.
• Invest in technology and infrastructure that support sustainable development and resource management.
• Implement regulatory frameworks that incentivize clean energy and equitable trade practices.

Outlook:

In a best-case scenario, the 2024 Program of Action leads to a sustainable and equitable global economy. In a worst-case scenario, resistance from powerful nations results in increased geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation. The most likely outcome involves gradual progress with periodic setbacks as nations negotiate the balance between national interests and global cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report highlights the influence of Donald Trump and the Havana Group of the Progressive International in shaping the current economic discourse. The actions of these individuals and entities will significantly impact the success of the proposed economic reforms.