Published on: 2025-04-14

Intelligence Report: Haiti’s government adopts a ‘war budget’ as town after town falls to gangs – ABC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Haiti’s government has implemented a “war budget” of $275,000 to combat escalating gang violence and stabilize the nation. Key allocations include 40% for police and military operations, 20% for border fortification with the Dominican Republic, and 16% for social programs. Despite these efforts, gang control remains extensive, with significant territories, including towns like Mirebalais and Saut-d’Eau, falling under gang influence. The situation poses severe threats to national security and regional stability, necessitating immediate and coordinated international support.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The adoption of a “war budget” signifies a critical response to the pervasive threat posed by gangs in Haiti. The allocation of resources highlights the government’s prioritization of security and border control. However, the limited budget may not suffice to address the scale of the crisis, particularly given the gangs’ control over 85% of Port-au-Prince and their recent territorial expansions. The failure of local law enforcement to maintain control, as evidenced by the incidents in Mirebalais and Saut-d’Eau, underscores the urgent need for enhanced strategic planning and international collaboration.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The current situation in Haiti presents several strategic risks:

• National Security: The dominance of gangs threatens the sovereignty and governance of Haiti, with potential spillover effects into neighboring regions.
• Regional Stability: The instability in Haiti could lead to increased migration pressures on neighboring countries, particularly the Dominican Republic.
• Economic Interests: Continued violence and instability may deter foreign investment and exacerbate economic decline, leading to further humanitarian crises.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance international cooperation to provide strategic and logistical support to Haitian authorities.
• Implement comprehensive community engagement programs to strengthen local resilience against gang influence.
• Consider technological advancements in surveillance and intelligence to improve law enforcement capabilities.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful international intervention and strategic resource allocation lead to a gradual restoration of order and stability.

Worst-case scenario: Continued gang expansion results in further territorial losses and humanitarian crises, destabilizing the region.

Most likely outcome: Incremental progress with ongoing challenges, requiring sustained international support and strategic adjustments.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report highlights the involvement of the National Human Rights Defense Network and mentions the gang coalition known as Viv Ansanm. Key individuals affected include two nuns, one police officer, and two journalists who remain missing. The transitional presidential council is also a significant entity in the current scenario.