Published on: 2025-04-15

Intelligence Report: Sudan talks in London to find way to end brutal conflict – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The London conference on Sudan, held on April 15, 2025, marked the second anniversary of the civil war. The European Union and the United Kingdom pledged substantial financial aid to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. However, the absence of Sudanese representatives and the announcement of a rival government by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) underscore the complexity of achieving peace. The key recommendation is to enhance diplomatic efforts to engage all parties in dialogue, emphasizing the protection of civilians and the facilitation of humanitarian aid.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The London conference highlighted international commitment to addressing Sudan’s humanitarian crisis, with the EU pledging €522 million and the UK £120 million in aid. Despite these efforts, the German representative emphasized that humanitarian aid alone cannot resolve the conflict. The RSF’s declaration of a rival government complicates the political landscape, potentially undermining peace efforts. The absence of Sudanese representatives at the conference suggests a lack of direct engagement with key stakeholders.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. The formation of a rival government by the RSF could lead to further fragmentation and violence. Humanitarian conditions are expected to worsen, with millions displaced and widespread famine. The lack of political will and engagement from Sudanese parties remains a critical barrier to peace, increasing the risk of prolonged conflict.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Intensify diplomatic efforts to include all Sudanese factions in peace talks, prioritizing civilian protection and humanitarian access.
• Encourage international stakeholders to apply coordinated pressure on warring parties to cease hostilities.
• Explore technological solutions to improve aid delivery and communication channels in conflict zones.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful diplomatic engagement leads to a ceasefire and the establishment of a unified transitional government, stabilizing the region.

Worst-case scenario: Continued conflict and political fragmentation result in increased violence, further displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Most likely outcome: Protracted negotiations with intermittent violence and limited progress towards a comprehensive peace agreement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Annalena Baerbock
• David Lammy
• Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo
• European Union
• United Kingdom
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)