Published on: 2025-04-16

Intelligence Report: Paramilitaries Declare Rival Government in Sudan

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan have declared the formation of a rival government amidst ongoing conflict with the national army. This development exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, with over 150,000 fatalities and 12 million displaced individuals. The international community, including the UK, is calling for a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid. Immediate strategic actions are required to address the escalating violence and humanitarian needs.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The declaration by the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, marks a significant escalation in the power struggle with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The RSF’s claim to establish a “state of law” and provide essential services indicates an attempt to legitimize their governance. The ongoing conflict has resulted in severe humanitarian conditions, with famine-like scenarios reported. The international community’s response, including financial aid and calls for peace, highlights the global concern over Sudan’s stability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The formation of a rival government poses significant risks to regional stability and national security. The power struggle may lead to further fragmentation of Sudan, increasing the potential for prolonged conflict. Economic interests are threatened by disrupted trade routes and humanitarian crises. The risk of international intervention or sanctions could further destabilize the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to mediate between conflicting parties and promote a ceasefire.
• Increase humanitarian aid and ensure safe delivery routes to affected areas.
• Support initiatives for political dialogue and reconciliation to prevent further fragmentation.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful mediation leads to a ceasefire and political dialogue, stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: Escalation of conflict results in further humanitarian crises and international intervention.
Most likely outcome: Continued conflict with intermittent international aid and diplomatic efforts.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The RSF and the national army are the primary entities involved in the conflict.