Published on: 2025-04-16

Intelligence Report: Türkiye Iraq Joint Planning Group to Convene in Baghdad

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Türkiye and Iraq are set to hold a significant meeting in Baghdad on April 17, focusing on enhancing bilateral cooperation in economy, development, trade, and security. This meeting is a continuation of efforts to strengthen ties following agreements made during a previous high-level visit. Key topics include counterterrorism cooperation, economic partnerships, and regional stability. The outcome of these discussions could significantly impact regional dynamics, particularly concerning security and economic development.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Strong diplomatic engagement between Türkiye and Iraq; shared economic interests; mutual commitment to regional stability.
Weaknesses: Historical tensions; differing political priorities; potential internal political instability in Iraq.
Opportunities: Enhanced trade routes through the Development Road Project; increased counterterrorism collaboration; potential for regional leadership in economic integration.
Threats: Regional instability due to external conflicts; potential backlash from opposing factions within Iraq; geopolitical tensions involving neighboring countries.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The outcomes of the Türkiye-Iraq meeting may influence regional stability by strengthening economic ties and security cooperation. Enhanced trade routes could boost economic growth, while improved counterterrorism efforts may reduce regional threats. However, increased cooperation could also provoke reactions from other regional actors, potentially affecting alliances and regional power dynamics.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Successful implementation of agreements leads to strengthened economic and security ties, fostering regional stability.
Scenario 2: Internal political challenges in Iraq hinder progress, leading to stalled initiatives and increased regional tensions.
Scenario 3: External geopolitical pressures disrupt cooperation, resulting in a re-evaluation of bilateral strategies.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The meeting’s outcomes could significantly impact regional security and economic landscapes. Enhanced cooperation may reduce terrorism threats and promote economic growth, but potential risks include internal political instability in Iraq and external geopolitical pressures. The success of initiatives like the Development Road Project could redefine regional trade dynamics.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage continued diplomatic engagement to solidify agreements and address potential political challenges.
• Monitor regional reactions to increased Türkiye-Iraq cooperation to anticipate and mitigate geopolitical tensions.
• Support initiatives that promote economic integration and security collaboration to enhance regional stability.
• Develop contingency plans for scenarios involving internal or external disruptions to bilateral cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Nuh Yılmaz, Mohammed Hussein Bahr’ul-Ulum, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.