Published on: 2025-04-16

Intelligence Report: Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah ‘step by step’ says President Aoun – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has announced a strategic initiative to disarm Hezbollah gradually, aiming for full state control over all weapons by the end of 2025. This plan involves ongoing dialogue with Hezbollah and emphasizes avoiding sectarian conflict. The initiative is influenced by regional dynamics and international pressures, particularly from the United States. The Lebanese army is actively increasing its presence in Hezbollah-dominated areas, signaling a commitment to this disarmament process.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

General Analysis

President Aoun’s strategy to disarm Hezbollah is a significant shift in Lebanon’s internal security dynamics. The plan involves a phased approach, prioritizing dialogue and avoiding direct confrontation. The Lebanese army’s increased recruitment and deployment in the south indicate a strategic move to assert state authority in regions traditionally influenced by Hezbollah. The rejection of a separate military unit for Hezbollah members suggests a focus on integration rather than segregation, aiming to maintain national unity. Regional developments, including changes in Iranian and Syrian policies, may provide a conducive environment for this initiative.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The disarmament plan carries potential risks, including the possibility of sectarian tensions escalating if not managed carefully. The involvement of international actors, particularly the United States, adds pressure but also offers diplomatic support. The ongoing Israeli-Lebanese tensions, including border disputes and military actions, present a significant challenge to the disarmament process. Economic implications are tied to the stability of the region, with potential impacts on foreign investment and aid.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Encourage continued dialogue between Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah to ensure a peaceful disarmament process.
• Monitor regional developments closely, particularly shifts in Iranian and Syrian policies, to assess their impact on Lebanon’s internal dynamics.
• Strengthen international diplomatic efforts to support Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability, focusing on resolving border disputes with Israel.
• Consider scenario-based projections: If the disarmament process succeeds, Lebanon could see increased political stability and economic growth. Conversely, failure could lead to heightened internal conflict and regional instability.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Joseph Aoun, Morgan Ortagus