Published on: 2025-04-18

Intelligence Report: Persistent violence and displacement lead to record hunger in Haiti as needs skyrocket – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Haiti is experiencing unprecedented levels of hunger due to escalating violence, displacement, and economic instability. Over half of the population is projected to face acute food insecurity by mid-2025. Despite efforts by the World Food Programme (WFP) to provide emergency assistance, resources are insufficient to meet the growing needs. Immediate international support and a focus on restoring peace are critical to preventing further deterioration.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: WFP’s expanded operations and unprecedented access to conflict zones have enabled significant aid delivery.
Weaknesses: Limited resources and logistical challenges hinder the scale of response needed.
Opportunities: Increased international support could stabilize the situation and improve humanitarian outcomes.
Threats: Continued violence and displacement could exacerbate food insecurity and destabilize the region further.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The instability in Haiti may influence neighboring countries by increasing refugee flows and straining regional resources. This could lead to broader economic and security challenges in the Caribbean.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: International intervention leads to a reduction in violence and improved food security.
Scenario 2: Continued violence results in a humanitarian catastrophe, with regional spillover effects.
Scenario 3: Partial stabilization allows for gradual recovery but requires sustained international support.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The current crisis poses significant risks to regional stability, with potential for increased migration and economic disruption. The humanitarian situation could worsen without immediate intervention, leading to long-term developmental setbacks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Mobilize international funding to meet the WFP’s urgent financial needs and expand humanitarian operations.
• Facilitate diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire and promote political dialogue within Haiti.
• Develop contingency plans for regional impacts, including potential refugee influxes and economic disruptions.
• Scenario-based projection: If international support is mobilized swiftly, the situation could stabilize within 12-18 months.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Wanja Kaaria