Published on: 2025-04-18

Intelligence Report: Pakistan confirms its expulsion of more than 80,000 Afghans since April 1 – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Pakistan has expelled over 80,000 Afghan nationals since April 1, 2023, as part of a broader initiative to repatriate illegal foreigners. This action has raised significant humanitarian concerns and poses potential risks to regional stability. The lack of extensions to the repatriation plan and the firm stance of Pakistani authorities indicate a strong commitment to this policy, despite international criticism.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Pakistan’s decisive action may strengthen its internal security and address illegal immigration concerns.
Weaknesses: The policy risks damaging Pakistan’s international reputation and straining relations with Afghanistan.
Opportunities: Potential for improved border management and bilateral negotiations with Afghanistan.
Threats: Increased humanitarian crises and potential for unrest in border regions.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The expulsion of Afghans from Pakistan could lead to increased pressure on Afghanistan’s infrastructure and resources, potentially destabilizing the region. This may also impact neighboring countries as they could face increased migration flows.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Continued expulsions lead to heightened tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, resulting in diplomatic strains and potential border conflicts.
Scenario 2: Pakistan and Afghanistan engage in negotiations, leading to a more structured repatriation process and improved bilateral relations.
Scenario 3: Humanitarian organizations intervene, providing aid and support to mitigate the impact on returnees, reducing potential crises.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The mass expulsion of Afghans poses significant risks, including humanitarian crises, increased regional instability, and potential backlash from the international community. The policy may exacerbate existing tensions and create vulnerabilities in border security and regional cooperation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Afghanistan to ensure a coordinated and humane repatriation process.
• Collaborate with international organizations to provide support and resources for returnees, mitigating humanitarian risks.
• Monitor border regions for potential security threats and increase cooperation with neighboring countries to manage migration flows.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that proactive diplomatic engagement could lead to improved bilateral relations and reduced regional tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Talal Chaudhry, Mihyung Park, Ishaq Dar, Akber Khan