Published on: 2025-04-21

Intelligence Report: The Papabili – 15 Potential Successors To Pope Francis – International Business Times

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The potential succession of Pope Francis is a significant event with implications for the Catholic Church’s future direction. Key figures include Pietro Parolin, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Matteo Zuppi, among others. Each candidate brings unique strengths and challenges, influencing the Church’s global diplomatic, theological, and cultural engagements. Strategic recommendations focus on monitoring developments and preparing for shifts in Church policies that may affect international relations and social issues.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The candidates possess diverse backgrounds, enhancing the Church’s ability to engage with various global issues.
Weaknesses: Potential ideological divides could hinder cohesive policy implementation.
Opportunities: A new papacy could rejuvenate the Church’s approach to contemporary issues like migration and interfaith dialogue.
Threats: Internal conflicts and external pressures may challenge the Church’s unity and influence.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The interaction between candidates’ backgrounds and global issues such as migration, religious freedom, and geopolitical tensions could amplify risks or create opportunities for the Church to assert its influence.

Scenario Generation

Potential scenarios include a continuation of current policies under a like-minded successor or a shift towards more conservative or progressive stances, impacting global Catholic engagement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The succession could alter the Church’s stance on critical issues, affecting international relations and social policies. Emerging threats include potential polarization within the Church and shifts in its geopolitical influence.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor the selection process closely to anticipate policy shifts.
• Engage with key Church figures to understand potential changes in diplomatic and social strategies.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case – A unifying figure enhances global influence; Worst case – Internal divisions weaken the Church’s stance; Most likely – Gradual policy evolution with moderate impact.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Pietro Parolin, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Matteo Zuppi, Claudio Gugerotti, Jean-Marc Aveline, Anders Arborelius, Mario Grech, Péter Erdő, Jean-Claude Hollerich, Luis Antonio Tagle.

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus’, ‘cybersecurity’, ‘counter-terrorism’, ‘regional focus’)