Published on: 2025-04-29

Intelligence Report: Pakistani terrorist behind deadly Pahalgam attack is former para commando probe finds – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The investigation into the Pahalgam attack has revealed that the orchestrator is a former Pakistani para commando. This development underscores the strategic threat posed by individuals with advanced military training engaging in terrorism. The report recommends enhanced cross-border intelligence collaboration and heightened security measures in vulnerable regions.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Advanced military training of attackers; local support networks.
Weaknesses: Potential for detection due to increased scrutiny; reliance on local operatives.
Opportunities: Disrupting local support networks; leveraging intelligence sharing.
Threats: Continued cross-border terrorism; potential for escalation in regional tensions.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The involvement of former military personnel in terrorism highlights the risk of cross-border training camps. This interaction could exacerbate regional instability and increase the frequency of attacks.

Scenario Generation

Best Case: Successful dismantling of local networks and prevention of future attacks.
Worst Case: Escalation of attacks leading to broader regional conflict.
Most Likely: Continued sporadic attacks with intermittent successes in counter-terrorism efforts.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The presence of highly trained individuals in terrorist activities poses a significant threat to regional stability. The potential for these individuals to train others could lead to an increase in the sophistication and frequency of attacks. Cross-domain risks include potential impacts on regional economic stability and international relations.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms between regional and international partners to track and disrupt training camps.
• Increase surveillance and security measures in vulnerable areas to prevent future attacks.
• Develop community outreach programs to undermine local support networks for terrorists.
• Scenario-based projections suggest a focus on preventing worst-case outcomes through proactive counter-terrorism strategies.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Junaid Ahmad Bhat, Arbaaz Mir, Hashim Musa, Ali Bhai, Adil Thoker, Asif Shaikh.

6. Thematic Tags

(‘national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus’)