Published on: 2025-05-18

Intelligence Report: Trump must not leave Israel out of his Middle East deals – New York Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights concerns regarding the potential marginalization of Israel in recent U.S. diplomatic engagements in the Middle East. It emphasizes the strategic necessity for the U.S. to maintain strong ties with Israel amidst evolving regional dynamics. Key recommendations include ensuring Israel’s inclusion in future diplomatic negotiations and addressing security threats posed by regional actors such as Iran and Hamas.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Analyzed the intentions behind recent U.S. diplomatic moves in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the implications for Israel’s security and regional influence.

Indicators Development

Monitored shifts in regional alliances and diplomatic engagements that could signal changes in operational planning or strategic priorities.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Examined the adaptation of ideological narratives in the region, assessing their potential impact on recruitment and incitement activities.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The exclusion of Israel from key diplomatic discussions could weaken its strategic position and embolden adversarial actors such as Iran and Hamas. This may lead to increased regional instability and undermine U.S. influence. Additionally, any perceived sidelining of Israel could strain U.S.-Israel relations and impact broader geopolitical alliances.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Ensure Israel’s active participation in future Middle East diplomatic initiatives to maintain regional stability.
• Strengthen intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Israel to counter threats from Iran and other hostile entities.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Inclusive diplomacy enhances regional peace and strengthens U.S.-Israel ties.
  • Worst Case: Marginalization of Israel leads to increased regional conflict and diminished U.S. influence.
  • Most Likely: Continued diplomatic efforts with cautious inclusion of Israel, balancing regional interests.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ahmad al-Sharaa, Hamas, Iran

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus