Published on: 2025-05-18

Intelligence Report: If Mohammed Sinwar is gone why not replace Hamas in Gaza – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent death of Mohammed Sinwar, a key Hamas figure, presents a strategic opportunity to challenge Hamas’s control in Gaza. The current situation raises questions about the potential for replacing Hamas with alternative governance structures. This report evaluates the feasibility and implications of such a transition, considering the historical resilience of Hamas and the geopolitical dynamics at play.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions using machine-assisted hypothesis testing and structured refutation. The analysis suggests that Hamas may attempt to consolidate power despite leadership losses, leveraging its established networks and influence in Gaza.

Indicators Development

Track digital radicalization, travel patterns, or online propaganda to anticipate operational planning. Monitoring shifts in online rhetoric and recruitment efforts can provide early warnings of Hamas’s strategic adjustments.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Analyze the spread and adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment and incitement signals. The persistence of Hamas’s ideological appeal, despite leadership losses, indicates a need for counter-narrative strategies to undermine its influence.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The death of Mohammed Sinwar could destabilize Hamas’s command structure temporarily, but the group’s deep-rooted presence in Gaza poses significant challenges to any replacement efforts. The potential for a power vacuum could lead to increased violence or the rise of more radical factions. Additionally, regional actors like Iran may exploit the situation to further their interests, complicating efforts to stabilize the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional partners to develop a comprehensive strategy for replacing Hamas with a governance structure that promotes stability and peace.
• Enhance intelligence operations to monitor and counteract Hamas’s efforts to regroup and reassert control.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Successful transition to a civilian-led governance structure, reducing violence and fostering economic development.
  • Worst Case: Emergence of more radical factions, leading to increased instability and regional conflict.
  • Most Likely: Hamas retains significant influence, but with weakened leadership and operational capabilities.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus