Published on: 2025-02-11

Intelligence Report: As Jordans King Abdullah meets Trump can he resist US pressure on Gaza – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The meeting between King Abdullah and Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., is pivotal, as it centers on U.S. pressure regarding the relocation of Palestinians from Gaza. King Abdullah faces significant opposition domestically and regionally to any agreement that would involve accepting displaced Palestinians into Jordan. The potential for domestic unrest and regional instability is high if Jordan is perceived to acquiesce to U.S. demands.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses)

The primary hypotheses include: (1) King Abdullah will resist U.S. pressure due to domestic and regional opposition, (2) King Abdullah may consider a compromise under significant U.S. financial pressure, and (3) King Abdullah will fully comply with U.S. demands, risking domestic unrest.

Indicators Development

Key indicators of potential outcomes include: increased public protests in Jordan, shifts in regional diplomatic alignments, and changes in U.S. financial aid to Jordan.

Scenario Analysis

Potential scenarios include: (1) Jordan maintains its current stance, (2) Jordan faces increased internal unrest due to perceived compliance with U.S. demands, and (3) regional diplomatic tensions escalate, affecting broader Middle Eastern stability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The strategic risks involve potential domestic unrest in Jordan, which could destabilize the monarchy and affect regional alliances. Economic implications include the potential reduction of U.S. financial aid, impacting Jordan’s economy. The broader regional stability could be threatened if Jordan’s position shifts, affecting its relations with neighboring countries and altering the balance of power in the Middle East.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Jordan should engage in diplomatic efforts to secure regional support and mitigate U.S. pressure.
• Enhance internal security measures to manage potential unrest.
• Explore alternative financial partnerships to reduce dependency on U.S. aid.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Jordan successfully resists U.S. pressure while maintaining regional alliances and domestic stability. Worst-case scenario: Compliance with U.S. demands leads to significant domestic unrest and regional diplomatic fallout. Most likely outcome: Jordan navigates a middle path, balancing U.S. relations with regional and domestic considerations.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as King Abdullah, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Dima Toukan. These individuals are central to the ongoing discussions and potential outcomes related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.